NEW YORK – A dangerous and potentially historic winter storm is set to slam the Tri-State area later today, bringing blizzard conditions, heavy snow, damaging winds, and coastal flooding.
While this morning begins with scattered light snow and rain, the storm will rapidly intensify through the afternoon and peak overnight.
The storm is poised to be the biggest snow-maker to slam the Tri-State area since the storm of January 2016, which was the biggest snowstorm to ever hit NYC on record. The last time we faced a blizzard warning was in March 2017, so this is a rare event. The storm involves the convergence of energy from the Ohio Valley colliding with Gulf and ocean moisture to produce a storm that almost resembles a winter hurricane.
The National Weather Service has issued blizzard and winter storm warnings for New York City and the Tri-State area on Sunday into Monday.
Slow Start This Morning
Light snow is falling across Sullivan, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange, and parts of northwest New Jersey, while most of New Jersey is seeing rain early. Some sleet mixed in around Ocean County before transitioning to rain. Roads begin the day wet, which may delay initial snow accumulation, but that won’t last long.
Visibility is already reduced in spots, with White Plains down to 0.2 miles, and travel is expected to grow increasingly difficult as heavier snow organizes later today.
Blizzard Conditions Build This Afternoon and Evening
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The strengthening coastal storm will pull up the East Coast and tap into just enough cold air to flip rain to snow across New York City and New Jersey by midday. After lunchtime, snow becomes more widespread and significantly more intense.
By evening, heavier bands begin developing, and conditions will deteriorate rapidly:
Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
Wind gusts 50 to 60 mph near the coast
Whiteout visibility
Widespread power outage potential due to downed trees and lines
Every county in the region is under a Blizzard Warning.
Snow Totals: Widespread Foot Plus, Up to 2 Feet Possible
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With hours of heavy snow overnight, totals will pile up quickly:
12 to 18 inches across most of the region
Localized 18 to 24 inches in a central corridor from the Jersey Shore to Long Island
Best chance for 24-plus inches: East End of Long Island and parts of the Jersey Shore
Up to 12 inches north and west (Pike, Sullivan, Ulster counties)
Coastal Flooding Threat
Winds whipping off the ocean will also push water inland. Up to 3 feet of coastal inundation is possible around high-tide cycles tonight into Monday morning, especially along Long Island and the Jersey Shore.
Timeline
This Morning:
Light mix, mainly wet roads
Visibility issues in spots
Afternoon:
Rain changes to snow for NYC/NJ
Snow intensity increases after lunchtime
Tonight (Worst Conditions):
Widespread heavy snow
1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall
50 to 60 mph gusts at the coast
Blizzard conditions, near zero visibility
Power outage risk
Monday Morning:
Heavy snow continues through early morning
Improving conditions by mid-morning
Snow tapers second half of the day
Winds remain strong – travel remains impacted
